Friday, November 2, 2012

OLD POLL: Susquehanna Polling and Research: Romney's Four Point Lead in Pennsylvania is Holding [Updated again; and again]

NOTE: Actual new PA Poll released.  Reported here.

UPDATE:  I emailed Jim Lee of Susquehanna and he replied this morning.  THE POLL IS OLD.  Somehow the Erie GOP posted it yesterday as if it was new.  A new poll will be released tomorrow showing a "tighter race."

The Erie GOP website continues to list their October 18th post and the "new" November 2nd post.  I should have been more suspicious, however, since all the results were exactly the same.  I'm thinking of changing my blog name to Speak With Diminished Authority...

FURTHER UPDATE:  I emailed the Erie GOP for clarification.  They replied as follows:

Dear Mr. Bier:
Thank you for your comments. They have been duly noted and corrections made.

    After the email, this statement was added to the November 2nd post.

*NB: This poll was completed during mid-October and has been posted here on October 18, 2012.  Our presentation,  may have caused some confusion, which is not intentional.

    The bottom line is that it is still unclear to me why the Erie GOP posted the same results from the prior poll four days before the presidential election with the words "released today" when the poll had been released on October 18th.  Nevertheless, I erred in not being more skeptical of reputedly "new" poll results that were upon closer inspection identical to the "old" results.  I apologize for the confusion that I helped to spread.


    On October 18th, Susquehanna Polling and Research made a splash with a poll showing Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama by four points, the first major poll to show Romney over Obama.  A new poll released today (according to the Erie County Pennsylvania Republican Party, who published the last poll results before anyone else) shows that Romney's four point lead has held up two weeks later:
Susquehanna Polling and Research results for Pennsylvania released today shows Mitt Romney leading President Obama 49% to 45% among 1376 likely voters. Two percent are undecided and 3% are for other candidates.
    Going into the last four days of the campaign, this will surely give the Obama campaign reason to worry, and may explain why Mitt Romney has planned a trip to Pennsylvania on Sunday.  If Pennsylvania tips toward the GOP, it is difficult to see how Barack Obama gets to a second term.

UPDATE: There is a NEWSFLASH on Susquehanna Polling's website that says "New Statewide Poll by Media Client To be Released," but there is no link for the poll results or details yet.  The Erie GOP was the client for the 10/18/12 poll, so it seems likely they were the client again this time and have released the results on their own website ahead of Susquehanna's release.

No comments:

Post a Comment