Study Cited By Michelle Obama Showing Drastic Drop in Childhood Obesity Questioned by Researchers

    As Michelle Obama celebrated the fourth anniversary of Let's Move, her White House initiative on fitness and healthy eating, she cited a recent study by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) showing a remarkable 43 percent drop in obesity rates among children ages 2-5.  Mrs. Obama brought up the study again on Friday at a Partnership for a Healthier America’s Building a Healthier Future Summit.  But a report by Reuters Health & Science Correspondent Sharon Begley casts doubt on the validity of the results of the study.  While Begley concludes that "no one can say for certain that the claim is wrong," the results are so uncertain that "based on the researchers' own data, the obesity rate may have even risen rather than declined."

    The problem lies in large measure with the small sample size of the CDC study and its relatively large margin of error.  Begley explains:

The 13.9 percent obesity rate among preschoolers reported for 2003-2004 had a large enough margin of error that the actual rate could range between 10.8 percent and 17.6 percent, the CDC authors acknowledged. The 8.4 percent rate in 2011-2012 reported could range from 5.9 percent and 11.6 percent.  

Since the range for 2003-2004 overlaps with that of 2011-2012, [epidemiologist Geoffrey Kabat of the Albert Einstein College of Medicine in New York City] said, "that's another way of saying there might have been no change" in preschoolers' obesity rate. Even an increase is a statistical possibility.

     The study size is not the only problem.  Other studies, some with considerably larger sample sizes, have shown significantly smaller decreases; others have shown little change; still others have actually shown obesity increasing.  For instance, a study of 200,000 children in the WIC (Women, Infants and Children) program "found virtually no change in obesity rates":

Rather than reducing the prevalence of obesity among 3-and-4-year olds in the WIC program in California's Los Angeles County, researchers found that the problem worsened from 2003 to 2011. Obesity rose to 20.4 percent from about 17 percent, the researchers reported in the CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report in 2013. 

In New York, the WIC study found that obesity rates fell to 15.5 percent in 2011 from about 19.5 percent in 2003, a much less dramatic drop than the 40 percent decline. 

"We agree there is a slight downward trend in obesity among 2-to-5-year olds," said Shannon Whaley, a co-author of the WIC study. "But a 43 percent drop is absolutely not what we're seeing."

     This is not the first time Mrs. Obama has cited statistics in support of Let's Move that turned out to be less than meets the eye.  Just last year, on the third anniversary of Let's Move, the first lady's office sent out a press release that appeared to take credit for the recent developments that "national childhood obesity rate has leveled off, and even declined in some cities and states." In particular, the White House highlighted a 13% decline in childhood obesity in Mississippi.  But as we reported at the time,

[t]he 13 percent decrease that Mrs. Obama touted is measured from Spring 2005 through Spring 2011. “Let's Move” was launched in February 2010, so the first five years of the time period in question were prior to Let's Move's existence.

     This week's Reuters report questioning the 43% decline suggests one more reason to question the results showing a decline in pre-schooler obesity rates:

[F]ew anti-obesity efforts target preschoolers... 

"The programs that have been implemented, from changing what's in vending machines to the Let's Move program, target school-age children more than preschoolers," he said, referring to an exercise initiative championed by Michelle Obama.

    Rather than wait for results to come in over the long term, the White House seems too eager to show that Mrs. Obama's Let's Move program is having an impact while President Obama is still in office. However, continuing to cite studies that do not support the assertions being made may do more harm than good, not only to Mrs. Obama's reputation, but to the very causes her program seeks to advance.


Note: A version of this post first appeared at The Weekly Standard.

White House Stats on Childhood Obesity Decline Pre-Date ‘Let's Move’

    First Lady Michelle Obama is continuing her road trip celebrating the 3rd anniversary of her Let's Move initiative, appearing on Good Morning America with Robin Roberts on Tuesday and at an event with Rachael Ray on Wednesday.  While the initial press release last week gave Let's Move credit for halting and even reversing the childhood obesity trend of the last thirty years, no statistics were cited.  Now, a new White House press release links to a  Robert Wood Johnson Foundation report to bolster its claims, but a closer look at the report casts further doubt.  The press release states:

Mrs. Obama and Rachael Ray chose to highlight school lunches in Mississippi, which was rated the most obese state in the nation for several years, because the state’s childhood obesity rates have declined by 13% among elementary school students in recent years.  According to the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, Mississippi is one of several states and cities to show decreases in childhood obesity, including Philadelphia, New York City and California. Mrs. Obama praised Mississippi’s efforts and called on other states and cities to follow suit.

    Mrs. Obama singled out Mississippi for special attention on Good Morning America:

"We've really changed the conversation in this country. When we started, there were a lot of people in this country who would have never thought that childhood obesity was a health crisis. But now we're starting to see some movement on this issue," the first lady told Roberts. "Our kids are eating better at school. They're moving more. And we're starting…to see a change in the trends. We're starting to see rates of obesity coming down like never before." 

"I'm going back to Mississippi because when I first went there, Mississippi was considered one of the most unhealthy states in the nation," Mrs. Obama said. 

"If we could fry water in Mississippi, we would, we would do that," Roberts, who grew up in Pass Christian, Mississippi, said. "Food is a culture." 

"But the good news in Mississippi is that they've seen a decline in childhood obesity of 13 percent, so we're gonna go celebrate and highlight what has been going on there. There's still work to do," the first lady said.

     While Mrs. Obama credits Let's Move for these recent advances, the report from Robert Wood Johnson does not back up that assertion.  Here is a chart from the report that the White House refers to in its press release and from which Mrs. Obama took Mississippi's 13% decline:

    The 13% decrease that Mrs. Obama touted is measured from Spring 2005 through Spring 2011.  Let's Move was launched in February 2010, so the first five years of the time period in question were prior to Let's Move's existence.  The time period for New York City is similar, but the Philadelphia and California figures only extend through 2010, ending just as Let's Move got moving.

    While the Robert Wood Johnson report demonstrates progress has been made in the struggle against childhood obesity, there's no proof yet that Let's Move has played a role, and the report does not mention the program.  While Let's Move has undoubtedly raised the profile of the issue, the White House will have to wait for the studies to catch up to its claims.  Even then, a direct correlation between any change in obesity rates and Let's Move will be difficult to verify.  But if the White House continues to cite outdated statistics to promote the success of Let's Move, Mrs. Obama's credibility may be diminished before current figures on childhood obesity become available.


Note: This article first appeared at The Weekly Standard.

White House Credits ‘Let's Move’ for Halting and Reversing Childhood Obesity Trend

   Today the White House credited Michelle Obama's three-year old Let's Move initiative with halting and even reversing a thirty year trend of increasing childhood obesity, a trend that has led to what the Centers for Disease Control has called an epidemic.  A press release from the Office of the First Lady announced details of a "two day nationwide tour" at the end of the month to celebrate the third anniversary of the program that promotes exercise and healthy eating habits to young people.  Also included is a short history of the program (emphasis added):

Mrs. Obama launched Let’s Move! on February 9, 2010 to unite the country around our kids’ health and create real support for families to live healthier lives.  Since then parents, business leaders, educators, elected officials, military leaders, chefs, physicians, athletes, childcare providers, community and faith leaders and kids themselves have stepped up to improve the health of our nation’s children. 

Thanks to these efforts, families now have access to more information to make healthier decisions for their children. Young people now have more opportunities for physical activity in their communities. Food in schools has been dramatically improved.  More Americans now have access to healthy, affordable food closer to home. And the national childhood obesity rate has leveled off, and even declined in some cities and states.

    The press release does not include any statistics to bolster the claim.

    Mrs. Obama's nationwide tour will consist of stops in Clinton, Mississippi; Chicago, Illinois; and Springfield, Missouri.  She will also make a pre-tour appearance on Late Night with Jimmy Fallon, to air on Friday, February 22.


Note: This article first appeared at The Weekly Standard.