President Obama and Republican Mitt Romney entered the final days of the presidential race tied in a state that the campaigns only recently began contesting, a Tribune-Review poll shows.This is obviously not as good news as the four-point lead previously reported for Romney in the Keystone State, but it's still got to be making the Obama team nervous.
The poll showed the race for Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes locked up at 47 percent in its final week.
Showing posts with label Pennsylvania. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pennsylvania. Show all posts
Sunday, November 4, 2012
The REAL New Susquehanna Poll for Pennsylvania - Tied at 47
The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reported tonight that its new (yes, really new this time) poll shows Barack Obama and Mitt Romney tied at 47-47 going into the final days of the campaign:
Friday, November 2, 2012
OLD POLL: Susquehanna Polling and Research: Romney's Four Point Lead in Pennsylvania is Holding [Updated again; and again]
NOTE: Actual new PA Poll released. Reported here.
UPDATE: I emailed Jim Lee of Susquehanna and he replied this morning. THE POLL IS OLD. Somehow the Erie GOP posted it yesterday as if it was new. A new poll will be released tomorrow showing a "tighter race."
The Erie GOP website continues to list their October 18th post and the "new" November 2nd post. I should have been more suspicious, however, since all the results were exactly the same. I'm thinking of changing my blog name to Speak With Diminished Authority...
FURTHER UPDATE: I emailed the Erie GOP for clarification. They replied as follows:
After the email, this statement was added to the November 2nd post.
*NB: This poll was completed during mid-October and has been posted here on October 18, 2012. Our presentation, may have caused some confusion, which is not intentional.
The bottom line is that it is still unclear to me why the Erie GOP posted the same results from the prior poll four days before the presidential election with the words "released today" when the poll had been released on October 18th. Nevertheless, I erred in not being more skeptical of reputedly "new" poll results that were upon closer inspection identical to the "old" results. I apologize for the confusion that I helped to spread.
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On October 18th, Susquehanna Polling and Research made a splash with a poll showing Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama by four points, the first major poll to show Romney over Obama. A new poll released today (according to the Erie County Pennsylvania Republican Party, who published the last poll results before anyone else) shows that Romney's four point lead has held up two weeks later:
UPDATE: There is a NEWSFLASH on Susquehanna Polling's website that says "New Statewide Poll by Media Client To be Released," but there is no link for the poll results or details yet. The Erie GOP was the client for the 10/18/12 poll, so it seems likely they were the client again this time and have released the results on their own website ahead of Susquehanna's release.
UPDATE: I emailed Jim Lee of Susquehanna and he replied this morning. THE POLL IS OLD. Somehow the Erie GOP posted it yesterday as if it was new. A new poll will be released tomorrow showing a "tighter race."
The Erie GOP website continues to list their October 18th post and the "new" November 2nd post. I should have been more suspicious, however, since all the results were exactly the same. I'm thinking of changing my blog name to Speak With Diminished Authority...
FURTHER UPDATE: I emailed the Erie GOP for clarification. They replied as follows:
Dear Mr. Bier:
Thank you for your comments. They have been duly noted and corrections made.
Sincerely.
After the email, this statement was added to the November 2nd post.
*NB: This poll was completed during mid-October and has been posted here on October 18, 2012. Our presentation, may have caused some confusion, which is not intentional.
The bottom line is that it is still unclear to me why the Erie GOP posted the same results from the prior poll four days before the presidential election with the words "released today" when the poll had been released on October 18th. Nevertheless, I erred in not being more skeptical of reputedly "new" poll results that were upon closer inspection identical to the "old" results. I apologize for the confusion that I helped to spread.
----------------------
On October 18th, Susquehanna Polling and Research made a splash with a poll showing Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama by four points, the first major poll to show Romney over Obama. A new poll released today (according to the Erie County Pennsylvania Republican Party, who published the last poll results before anyone else) shows that Romney's four point lead has held up two weeks later:
Susquehanna Polling and Research results for Pennsylvania released today shows Mitt Romney leading President Obama 49% to 45% among 1376 likely voters. Two percent are undecided and 3% are for other candidates.Going into the last four days of the campaign, this will surely give the Obama campaign reason to worry, and may explain why Mitt Romney has planned a trip to Pennsylvania on Sunday. If Pennsylvania tips toward the GOP, it is difficult to see how Barack Obama gets to a second term.
UPDATE: There is a NEWSFLASH on Susquehanna Polling's website that says "New Statewide Poll by Media Client To be Released," but there is no link for the poll results or details yet. The Erie GOP was the client for the 10/18/12 poll, so it seems likely they were the client again this time and have released the results on their own website ahead of Susquehanna's release.
Thursday, October 18, 2012
Confirmed: Romney Leading Obama by 4 Points in... Pennsylvania?! [Updated again]
According to a posting today at the website of the Erie County Pennsylvania Republican Party, Mitt Romney now leads Barack Obama by four percentage points in a recent poll done by a Pennsylvania Polling firm Susquehanna Polling and Research:
Update: About an hour after I posted the above, the Washington Examiner confirmed:
Update: Poll details now on Susquehanna Polling & Research's website.
Good News! Romney leads in Pennsylvania
Posted on October 18, 2012 by eriecogop
Great news. Our latest poll from Susquehanna Polling & Research, conducted October 11-13, shows Mitt Romney leading by 4-points in Pennsylvania, 49%-45% after his excellent debate performances.A tweet from polling firm sent out this afternoon was apparently quickly deleted, so this report cannot yet be confirmed, but if accurate, it is momentous.
Update: About an hour after I posted the above, the Washington Examiner confirmed:
A new poll shows Republican Mitt Romney leading in Pennsylvania, a state that Republicans had all but written off just weeks ago but which is now listed as a toss up by the Real Clear Politics website.I guess next time I should pick up the phone and just call...
Susquehanna Polling and Research provided The Washington Examiner with a poll it conducted for state party officials that shows Romney with a 49 percent to 45 percent lead over President Obama.
It's the first poll to show Romney leading among likely voters in the Keystone State.
"The polling is very clear that the race is certainly up for grabs and Republicans have a tendency to never believe it," Susquehanna President James Lee told The Examiner.
Update: Poll details now on Susquehanna Polling & Research's website.
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