Ahead of Deal, Top Intel Organization Plays Down Iran's Sponsorship of Terrorism

    Sunday night, Stephen Hayes noted (via Twitter) a Times of Israel article that the 2015 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Communities delivered annually by Director of National Intelligence James Clapper to a Senate committee had "removed Iran and Hezbollah from its list of terrorism threats" after having been included in prior years.
    For each of at least the past four years, the report from Clapper has featured a section early in the document entitled "Terrorism". In the 2015 report, that section spans pages 4 and 5 of the report and is completely silent about both Iran and Hezbollah. Other sections of the report mention Iran as a cyber threat and talk about Iran's nuclear program as a potential threat, but even when discussing specific threats country by country, the section dedicated to Iran (four paragraphs on page 14) does not mention terrorism as a reason that nation is an "ongoing threat" to the United States. The open sentence reads:

The Islamic Republic of Iran is an ongoing threat to US national interests because of its support to the Asad regime in Syria, promulgation of anti-Israeli policies, development of advanced military capabilities, and pursuit of its nuclear program.

     In stark contrast to the 2015 report, each of the three preceding reports not only singles out Iran for terrorism, but actually gives the country (sometimes paired with Hezbollah) its own subheading. Here are excerpts from the Terrorism section of each of those three reports:

2014:

2013:

2012:

    As Hayes noted on Twitter regarding the removal by US intelligence of Iran and Hezbollah as worldwide terror threats, "If true, jaw-dropping." This closer look at the last four annual reports seems to indicate that it is indeed true.

Note: A version of this post first appeared at The Weekly Standard.

Four More Former Gitmo Terrorists Returned to Battlefield

    The semi-annual report on "Re-engagement of Detainees Formerly Held at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba" was released on Wednesday by the Director of National Intelligence (DNI).  Out of a total of 614 former prisoners (up from 603 six months ago), intelligence has confirmed that 104 (up from 100) have re-engaged in terrorism/insurgent activities while another 74 are suspected of doing so. The latest report nudged the recidivism rate up to an even 29% from 28.9% last September.
    The report provides a chart breaking down the statistics into a number of categories:

    If there is good news to be found in the report, it is that 3 of the 4 detainees confirmed to have reengaged are now deceased.  Only one of the newly confirmed relapsed terrorist is still at large, joining the 56 other previously confirmed and 48 other suspected of reengaging presently not in custody.
    One of President Obama's first acts in office was to sign an executive order to close the facility at Guantanamo.  In his State of the Union address this January, the president briefly expressed his desire once again to see the facility closed, laying the responsibility on Congress to act.  Jay Carney was recently asked about a news report of a former detainee arrested in Britain suspected of terror activity in Syria, but Carney said he had not seen the report:

Q    A former Guantanamo detainee has been arrested in Britain on suspicion of terror offenses in Syria.  When you see these incidences pop up does it give the White House any pause on a policy for closing Guantanamo? 

MR. CARNEY:  I haven't seen that specific report.  What I can tell you is that there is a thorough review process on every individual, every detainee who’s being considered for transfer that takes all of these issues into account.

    As was the case six months ago, the new semi-annual report simply appeared on the DNI's website on Wednesday.   The release was not noted on the DNI's Twitter account, the agency's Facebook page, nor IC on the Record, the DNI's Tumblr account.


Note: A version of this post first appeared at The Weekly Standard.

Director of National Intelligence Counterterrorism Map Misspells 'Israel'

    The Office of the Director of National Intelligence released its interactive 2014 Counterterrorism Calendar this week on the website of the National Counterterrorism Center.  The map provided with the calendar contains an embarrassing error, misspelling the name of the US's closest ally in the Middle East, Israel, as "Isreal."  The error can be seen by hovering over the tiny country with a computer's mouse:

    Israel is included in the map because of the activity of Hamas.  Information on that group is available in a pop-up window where the name of the country is spelled correctly:

    Despite Israel's inclusion on the larger map, three other countries are missing [circles added]:

    Libya and Tunisia are not labeled or highlighted on the map despite the State Department's recent designation of Ansar al-Shari’a groups in both countries as Foreign Terrorist Organizations.  The designations were announced on January 10, and the map was not released until January 14.  Also unlabeled on the map is Iran, recognized as one of the leading state sponsors of terrorism in the world.  The following appears in the State Department's most recent Country Reports on Terrorism:

In 2012, there was a clear resurgence of Iran’s state sponsorship of terrorism, through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force (IRGC-QF), its Ministry of Intelligence and Security, and Tehran’s ally Hizballah, who remained a significant threat to the stability of Lebanon and the broader region. Attacks in Europe, Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, and the Far East were linked to the IRGC-QF or Hizballah. In fact, Hizballah’s terrorist activity has reached a tempo unseen since the 1990s with attacks plotted in Southeast Asia, Europe, and Africa.

UPDATE: A spokesman for the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) writes: "Thank you (and Mr. Bier) for highlighting the typographical errors associated with our online interactive calendar. We’ve provided these edits to our graphics team who will correct the programming as soon as possible." He also notes that map was released by NCTC, not the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. NCTC reports to the Director of National Intelligence.


Note: A version of this article first appeared at The Weekly Standard.

National Intelligence 'R' Us

    I performed a public service today for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.  This tweet appeared this morning:

    Unfortunately, "KRNS"stands for "KNOWLEDGE REPRESENTATION IN NEURAL SYSTEMS", not "reputation," as seen at the link.  I helpfully pointed this out via a tweet of my own:

    A few minutes later:

    Hopefully this incident will not inflict lasting damage on the agency's representation, er, reputation.

More Former Guantanamo Bay Detainees Return To Terrorism

    An unclassified version of a September report from the Director of National Intelligence reveals that another five former Guantanamo Bay detainees have either been confirmed as reengaging in terrorism or are suspected of doing so.  The report comes just as a judge in Algeria has approved parole of two detainees recently transferred to Algerian custody from the Cuba-based detention facility.
    Of the 603 former detainees tracked by US intelligence services, a total of 100 have now been confirmed as reengaging in "terrorism" or "insurgent" activities, while another 74 are suspected of reengaging.  This brings the total rate of recidivism to nearly 29 percent, up from 28 percent as of the last report six months ago.  The report includes the following table of all detainee cases:

    Two of the detainees suspected of reengaging in the last six months are among those transferred since President Obama took office in 2009.   Of the seventy-four detainees transferred since January 22, 2009, seven are either confirmed or suspected of reengaging, up from five in the prior report, raising the recidivism rate of those transferred during the president's time in office from 7 percent to 10 percent.
    The two men transferred to Algerian custody on August 28 are Nabil Hadjarab and Motai Sayab, according to the Miami Herald.  Both had been cleared for release years ago and had been part of the hunger strike at Guantanamo.  There are still 90 or so detainees that have similarly been cleared for release but are still in custody pending arrangements with countries who will receive them subject to conditions.  A lawyer for one of the two detainees just paroled says that his client will be required to "check in with authorities every month."
    The report on all Guantanamo Bay detainees is required at least once every six months.  This latest version was released without comment on the website of the Director of National Intelligence on Thursday, September 5.  The release was not noted on the DNI's Twitter account, the agency's Facebook page, nor the latest social media outlet for the intelligence community, IC on the Record, the DNI's Tumblr account.


Note: A version of this article first appeared at The Weekly Standard.