Under-employment: Then and Now

    As long as I am picking on CNN this week, here's a story on underemployment, the lesser known cousin of the more popular unemployment rate.  Here are some excerpts from "Under-employed and under the radar":

The economic crisis has taken a severe toll on the nation's workforce. But while much of the discussion centers around layoffs and unemployment, a growing number of Americans are becoming under-employed - struggling to pay their bills on a smaller salary, or completely giving up on finding any work. 

Unemployment claims have climbed to 7-year highs, but the number of people who have settled for part-time work or given up on finding a job altogether is the worst it's been in over 14 years, but isn't included in the official unemployment rate... 

The under-employment rate, which counts those without jobs who have become discouraged and stopped looking for work, as well as part-time workers who want full-time jobs, rose to 11% from 10.7%, the highest rate since April 1994, according to the Labor Department's monthly jobs report.

    Those paying careful attention to the numbers and dates in the preceding paragraphs will have figured out by now that this was not a recent article.  Rather, this tale of gloom and doom (justifiably so) was published on October 3, 2008, about five weeks before the 2008 Presidential election.  Fast-forward exactly four years to October 3, 2012, and CNN published another story on underemployment just five weeks before another Presidential election.  This time, it's titled "September jobs report probably won't sway election":

Only two monthly jobs reports remain before the presidential election, but don't expect either of them to swing undecided voters. 

That's because, in all likelihood, both reports will show more sluggish job growth... 

"If the report is close to my expectations then it should not have a meaningful impact on the election," [Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics] said.  

Following Friday's jobs report, President Obama will probably continue to say the private sector has been adding jobs for two-and-a-half years. Mitt Romney is likely to point out that more than 20 million Americans remain either unemployed or underemployed.

Both will be right.

The article never actually gets around to mentioning the underemployment rate which stood at 11% in September 2008.  Currently, that rate is 14.7%.  What a difference four years makes.  And who's challenging the incumbent.

Defining Moment

    Michael Grunwald of Time Magazine noted today that the perennial question of presidential campaigns since 1980 "Are you better off now then you were four years ago?" has reared its head again this time around:

[Obama campaign advisors] really need to find an answer to the question: Are Americans better off than they were four years ago? On “This Week,” David Plouffe repeatedly dodged it before saying “we’ve made a lot of progress.”  David Axelrod also stonewalled on “Fox News Sunday,” saying only that we’re in a “better position” than we’d be under Republican rule. On “Face the Nation,” Obama surrogate Martin O’Malley actually replied: “No, but that’s not the question of this election.”

    Grunwald boldly asserts the Obama campaign should answer the question with a "yes." If the campaign is going to follow this advice, it'd better have its act together more than it did today, and quickly.  Here's how a campaign ad called "Defining Moment" begins, and it's an excellent argument for Mitt Romney and the Republicans:

At this defining moment in our history, the question is not, "are you better off than you were four years ago?"   We all know the answer to that. The real question is will our country be better off four years from now?  How will we lift our economy and restore America's place in the world?

This is a fairly devastating framing of the choice facing the nation this November.  If Barack Obama hasn't delivered in three and a half years, why should the American people trust him with another four?  What will he do differently this time that will actually turn the country around?

    By the way, that campaign ad, "Defining Moment"?   It's a Barack Obama ad from 2008:




Defining moment, indeed.


Note:  I originally posted about this ad back in March.